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Britain's rail network could be crippled by weather in outer space, boffins have warned.
First it was leaves on the line. Now rail chiefs are being urged to consider the safety risks posed by bad weather more further afield โsolar storms in space.
They could cause signals to switch from red to green โ sparking train crashes, scientists have warned. In future trains may have to be cancelled as a result of space weather forecasts as well as meteorological ones.
READ MORE: Brits to be battered by three Atlantic blasts with 70mph winds – then snow for Christmas
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Researchers said solar storms can trigger powerful magnetic disturbances on Earth creating geomagnetically induced currents โ or GICs – which could interfere with electricity transmission and distribution grids. The team, led by Lancaster University professor of space physics Jim Wild and doctoral researcher Cameron Patterson, modelled how GICs flowed through the track circuits of AC electrified lines powered with overhead cables.
Using two routes โ the Preston to Lancaster section of the West Coast Main Line and track from Glasgow to Edinburgh โ the team studied how GICs induced in the rails could cause signalling to malfunction.
There are more than 50,000 signalling tracks in the UK where signals are controlled by an electrical circuit between the rails.
Physics PhD researcher Cameron said: "Crucially our research suggests that space weather is able to flip a signal in either direction, turning a red signal green or a green signal red. This is obviously very significant from a safety perspective. By building a computer model of the signalling track circuits using realistic specifications for the various components of the system we found that space weather events capable of triggering faults in these track circuits are expected in the UK every few decades.''
His earlier research, published in the journal Space Weather, explored what is known in the industry as 'right side' failures โ where the signal is switched from green to red. He said that is a fail-safe scenario. But the converse 'wrong side' failures โ when the signal goes from red to green โ are much more hazardous.
The latest study showed 'wrong side' failures could occur at a lower geoelectric field strength than for 'right side' ones.
That means a weaker geomagnetic storm could more easily trigger the most dangerous failures.
Researchers estimated for the tracks studied 'wrong side' failures could occur due to a geomagnetic storm every one or two decades. A once-in-a-century extreme event could potentially cause many malfunctions of both types throughout the lines in both directions of travel.
Cameron said: "When we experience severe space weather which happens every few decades or extreme space weather seen every century or two, then there is a potential for significant signalling mis-operation, which has an obvious safety impact.''
Space weather has impacted power grids in the last few decades โ including outages affecting millions across the Canadian province of Quebec in 1989 and Swedish city of Malmo in 2003.
A massive solar eruption triggered a geomagnetic storm that disrupted telegraph lines around the world in 1859.
Cameron said: "Our research shows that space weather poses a serious, if relatively rare, risk to the rail signalling system which could cause delays or even have more critical safety implications.
"This natural hazard needs to be taken seriously. By their nature, high-impact, low-frequency events are hard to plan for. But ignoring them is rarely the best way forward.''
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Professor Wild said: "Other industries such as aviation, electricity generation and transmission and the space sector are considering the risks to their operations and exploring how these might be mitigated.
"It's important that the rail sector is included in this planning. As our understanding of the space weather hazard improves, it's possible to consider how to reduce the risks. In future we could see space weather forecasting being used make decisions about limiting railway operations if an extreme event is expected, just as meteorological forecasts are used currently.''
Severe space weather is included in the UK Government's National Risk Register for Civil Emergencies which lists the risk posed to the UK's economy and society as 'significant'.
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