World War 3: Outcome of US vs China conflict laid bare in terrifying war game

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Japan currently relies on the military might of the US to protect its borders and interests in the region. Since the end of World War 2, Japan has remained committed to an ideology of pacifism. Its obligation to refrain from war is even written in its constitution; Article 9 states the country never walks the path of war again.

Yet, in recent weeks, the Asian country has made moves suggestive of military strategy, as the US appears to reduce its aid in the region.

US President Donald Trump remains committed to supporting Japan, however.

And recently, the Centre for New American Security created a war game simulation that goes through what would happen in the event of a full-blown conflict in 2030 with China on one side, the US and Japan on the other.

Titled “A Deadly Game: East China Sea Crisis 2030” the simulation unfolds as follows: “…A Chinese flotilla lands 50 soldiers on Uotsuri Jima, an island in the East China Sea that is part of the Senkakus, an island chain owned by Japan but also claimed by China.

“Declaring a 50-mile exclusion zone around the Senkakus, Beijing deploys a ring of surface ships, submarines, warplanes, and drones—backed by ballistic missiles based on the Chinese mainland…”

Japan counterattacks, sending in amphibious warships, submarines, surface warships and aircraft-backed Marines, according to the simulation.

With the existing military pact between the US and Japan, the former sends aircraft carriers and other assets to support its ally, with strict instructions not to exchange fire with Chinese forces.

This order, the simulation states, does not work.

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As a result a war between China and the US-Japan alliance explodes; the biggest engagement the world has seen in around 100 years.

As the National Interest points out, the conflict would be like no other in history; it would be multi-domain.

A maritime engagement between the US and China would, more than likely, incorporate a complex system of variables.

By 2030 China’s Navy will be much larger and technically as sophisticated as the US’ forces, the simulation claims.


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Thus unlike before when wars were dependent on military muscle, now, the outcome might be decided on things such as technological evolution, for example, in Aegis radar and long-range sensors.

The superior F-35 missiles might, the simulation claimed, rule the day.

Ultimately, the country in the offing to win would be the one to have fully harnessed the capabilities of artificial intelligence.

By 2030, the report warns, scalable lasers will bring unforeseen range both within and beyond the earth’s atmosphere and satellite sensor sophistication and weaponisation would likely determine the victor.

Interestingly aggressive positions in this simulated war might come less in the form of an actual attack, and more in “jamming” Chinese communications systems.

By the end of the simulation, the result was stalemated.

While China sustained heavy losses, it retained control of Uotsori Jima.

And although a victory in battle might appear the favourable outcome, the simulation notes that other, wider strategic points of policy and government, unable to be represented in a simulation, may transpire to prove decisive in the aftermath of war.

Currently, Trump’s administration has pledged to support Japan over the Senkaku Islands dispute.

Things are less clear given the upcoming presidential elections, with Democrat Joe Biden soaring past Trump in the polls.

Yet, as the simulation exposes, US backing of Japan in any sour relations with China risks the “dangerous possibility of combat between American and Chinese forces.”

It notes: “And once hostilities between the United States and China begin, they may be difficult to stop.”

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