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The latest polls for the 2020 US Presidential election show Joe Biden with a steady lead over President Trump. An Ipsos/Reuters poll released last week sees former Vice President Biden at 48 percent support, where as Trump is hovering at 35 percent.
Guotai Junan Securities, who issued the research, has studied US elections since 1870.
They currently hold that November 3 will likely see Biden win the presidency, and gives Trump a 30 percent chance of winning.
But they suggest that cooperation with China on the phase one trade deal, or military conflict, could drastically improve Trumps chances of re-election.
Action on China is predicted to boost Trump’s chances to over 50 percent.
Hua Changchun, head of Guotai Junan Securities, has suggested the actions could swing the 2020 election, and that the trade deal would have benefits despite Beijing distancing itself from it.
Hua said: “Trump may take extreme measures.
“He could either expand international cooperation, such as pressing China to buy American commodities in bulk, to help jobs and the economy, or he can opt for extreme military conflicts.”
The main hope from Hua is that the US pursue a completed trade agreement, explaining: “China’s purchase of American goods is important [for the US economy], just as the US domestic stimulus measures.
“If Trump decides to take this approach of enhancing global cooperation, it would be a big boost for the global economy and markets.”
The phase one trade deal was agreed by the US and China in January, and would see China purchasing more US agricultural products in a major boost to Trump’s re-election bids in rural states.
It has been a highly contentious issue, as China and the US have seen rising tensions over their respective claims of misinformation over the coronavirus pandemic.
On Monday, White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro was quoted as saying that the deal was “over”, which caused S&P 500 futures to tumble by 1.6 percent.
President Trump then clarified on twitter: ”The China Trade Deal is fully intact.
“Hopefully they will continue to live up to the terms of the agreement!”
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A more concerning path suggested by the research is all out conflict between the US and China.
Guotai Junan Securities research suggests that any military conflict could boost Trump’s re-election chances by up to 41 percent.
Hua said: “I don’t know where this war could take place, but I am worried that the war could happen around China.”
Trump has recently attacked Biden as being “weak” on China policy, as well as on other matters.
Biden’s campaign has also accused Trump of being weak on China, publishing advertising saying the president “rolled over” on issues around the country, which sparked criticism for the former Vice President echoing Trump’s anti-China rhetoric.
An informal advisor to the Biden campaign told Foreign Policy that Biden will continue to call out China on a number of issues, including its mass incarceration of Muslim Uighurs, its suppression of information about the coronavirus, and its promotion of unfair trade practices.
The advisor said: “I don’t think anyone wants a knife fight.
“I don’t get the sense that the vice president wants a race to the bottom on who can be tougher on China.
“But Trump has been very much standing with Xi, and so this is something that of course the vice president would be focused on.”
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