Nicola Sturgeons Labour problem spelt out by polling guru

John Curtice says SNP needs more support for IndyRef

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Polling guru Sir John Curtice believes SNP hopes to gain leverage in Westminister in the event of a hung parliament has now been dashed given the rise of Labour under Sir Keir Starmer. Nicola Sturgeon has been hoping a Labour minority government would see the SNP wield influence as a kingmaker, something the party could use to push an independence referendum through Parliament. But Sir John argued the political landscape has now shifted leaving the likelihood of a hung parliament less certain. 

Sir John told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme: “The biggest problem that the SNP faces in the wake of the fact the Labour Party now has enormous poll leads and are much more popular is not necessarily the impact within Scotland.

“Polls so far have suggested the SNP vote is holding up against that challenge but n deed for much of the past year or two the SNP have been hoping slash anticipating that the next UK General Election would result in a hung parliament.

“With Labour potentially able to form an administration but perhaps only with the acquiescence of the SNP.

“Now there were lots of debates about what would happen in the wake of that, Labour Party insisted they wouldn’t do a deal, they would let the SNP face them down and say you are going to have to vote us down and take the risk of letting the Conservatives back in etcetera. 

“And none of us knows how that would play out but certainly the SNP were hoping to leverage from that kind of outcome.”

He continued: “At the moment at least that outcome looks a lot less likely but in the meantime, the challenge for the SNP north of the border at the end of the day and this would have been true if the Supreme Court had said yes yesterday and we were going to have a referendum next October.

“It is at the moment while support for independence is almost at 50 percent and it is higher than it was in 2014, it is only somewhat short of 50 percent.

“If the SNP are going to achieve their hope of getting at least within Scotland more than 50 percent of the vote they do need to get the level of support for independence higher than it currently is in the polls.”

Ruth Davidson accuses Sturgeon of ‘de facto referendum’

Judges at the UK’s highest court announced their unanimous ruling on Wednesday, making clear the Scottish Parliament “does not have the power to legislate for a referendum on Scottish independence”.

Following the judgment, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon vowed to continue pushing for independence, saying: “As long as there is breath in my body, I refuse to give up on the basic principle of democracy.”

She said a special SNP conference will be held in the new year “to discuss and agree on the detail of a proposed de facto referendum”, using the next UK election.

Half of Scots would vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for the party could lead to Scottish independence, according to a new poll.

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The snap poll of 1,006 Scottish voters was carried out by Find Out Now for Channel 4 News on Wednesday after the UK Supreme Court ruled another independence referendum cannot be held without the backing of Westminster.

Of those asked, 412 of whom voted SNP in the last general election, 50 percent said they would vote SNP at the next general election if a victory for them could lead to Scotland leaving the UK.

A third said they would not, while the remainder said they do not know or prefer not to say.

Meanwhile, just over half said they would vote SNP at the next general election if their vote would be used as a mandate to negotiate independence with the UK Government, while a third said they would not.

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