Brexit: Expert says there will be ‘degree of chaos’ at border
Economic and political expert Jacob Kirkegaard argued the EU and UK are very much in the late stages of Brexit talks. While speaking to the BBC, he said regardless of any deal agreed between the UK and EU, it is now too late to fully implement it. He insisted 2021 will see both sides experience a temporary no deal scenario.
He claimed that this would be time-limited if a Brexit deal was agreed by both sides.
Mr Kirkegaard said: “I think the reality is that we are at such a late stage that if there was a deal tomorrow, could it be ratified in time and more importantly implemented in a relatively seamless manner?
“I think the answer to that question is an unambiguous no.
“There is going to be a degree of chaos at the UK-EU borders come January first.
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“This is because businesses that transact across these borders do not necessarily have full clarity on what forms and IT system they are going to be using.”
Ms Kirkegaard explained what this would mean for the UK and EU as the transition period ends.
He said: “It may actually be that the deal, if it does come, won’t be ratified in time.
“You will sort of have a period of a time-limited no deal in early 2021 before the deal is implemented.
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“But perhaps this is the sort of political oil that needs to be involved for a deal to actually be agreed.
“Namely, everybody gets burned a little bit by the very negative reaction to a no deal situation in early 2021.
“Therefore that is why we can agree to quickly move away from that.”
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Despite the late stage of the Brexit talks, some experts have argued that the mood music is good between the two sides.
Political expert Elizabeth Palmer said bookmakers have continued to increase the likelihood of a deal.
She added that the mood music coming out of the EU suggests that a deal is close.
However, due to the closeness to the end of the transition period, neither side will have ample time to look over the detail of any potentially agreed deal.
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